WHAT NEXT FOR EU?

Fallout heavy from France's decisive 'No'
By Martin Walker UPI Editor

WASHINGTON -- France's decisive rejection of the draft new constitution for the European Union Sunday by a 55-45 margin on a turnout of Over 70 percent of voters plunged France and Europe into a deep political crisis.

Other European officials were uncertain whether there was any point now in continuing with the planned referendums in other countries, and particularly in Britain.

"I do not think there will be much appetite to hold referendums in east Europe, in
Scandinavia or Britain after the French Non," said Britain's last Minister for Europe, Denis MacShane, MP. "Why should other governments go over the precipice to political defeat?"

There is no time now to stop the Dutch referendum, scheduled for Wednesday, but the turnout might now fall below the 30 percent required for it to be binding. But the British referendum, promised for next year, is now "not very likely," British diplomatic sources have signaled.

"Britain will hold a referendum if there is a treaty to hold a referendum on," MacShane said. "But a French Non means the new Treaty of Rome cannot be ratified. It was always a mistake to call a Treaty a constitution. But a constitution needs the confidence of the people and powerful, united leadership. Europe lacks confidence and effective leadership today so it was not a propitious time to hold plebiscites on the new Treaty. There may be some who hope this Treaty can be made to fly but it would be an insult to France and her citizens to say the Treaty they reject will continue on as a dead man walking. We will have to begin again."

And other smaller countries, like the Danes and Swedes who voted to stay out of the euro currency, or the Czechs, have their own reasons to question the referendum.

"Many governments of smaller countries did not like this constitution which eliminated the right of each country to have an EU Commissioner and brought in a powerful figurehead president of the European Council," MacShane said. "We must take a pause see if new ideas and leadership can emerge for the European ideal. The language of the 1980s and 1990s is now history. We need a new, younger generation of pro-European leaders to emerge from the shadows of yesterday's men."

The fluent French-speaking MacShane, who had backed the campaign in France for a Yes vote, noted that even if some Labour officials felt relief at the prospect of avoiding an uphill battle to win such a referendum in Britain, it was still a setback for Prime Minister Tony Blair.

"Mr. Blair like the majority of MPs who were elected as Labour or Lib Dem MPs on a pro-EU manifesto supports the new Treaty," MacShane said "Britain needs a strong effective European Union that can give back confidence to all European citizens that the EU works for them. We believe the new constitution helps that process. So the French Non is extremely negative. It sends an international signal that the EU is incapable of drawing up its own rule-book which can be accepted by citizens."

"Tony Blair signed the new Treaty of Rome in good faith and Britain believes it is good for Europe," MacShane said. "The new treaty gives more power to national parliament, to citizens and makes clear the limits of what the European Commission can do. It is a coherent response to the need for more clarity, more democracy and more transparency in Europe. Labour wanted a referendum to fight and win the cause of Europe."

Part of the problem, MacShane noted, was the high level of unemployment and low level of economic growth in France, factors which had helped to weaken the voters' faith in their political leaders and in Europe's economic policy-making. Each of the big three economies of the euro currency zone, Germany, France and Italy, had been sluggish, locked into a low growth and high unemployment pattern.

"Europe has been in economic stagnation for a decade in part because of wrong decisions by the European Commission with its obsession on over-regulation and by the failure of the European Central Bank to respond to the economic standstill," MacShane said. "Political-constitutional advances have to be based on economic and social confidence. Until Europe accepts the need for reform it will be hard to move forward to our common wish to see Europe as a powerful actor for peace and democracy in the world."

"The French Non is a symptom of a deeper European crisis - the failure of adapt to the new economic and social and environmental order in the world since the end of communism and the arrival of open trade called globalization," MacShane went on.

"The answer will not be found by the gentlemen of Brussels but by the willingness of political actors in Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Britain and the rest of Europe to rethink out-of-date 20th century economic and social ideology. We need a new 3-way historic compromise between economy, society and environment. Unfortunately we only hear the shrill protectionism and rejectionism of those who know how to say No to the future rather than work collaboratively to build a new Europe."

"I hope this shock will force pro-Europeans to unite and defeat the reactionary forces of the left and right who have unleashed a politics of fear in place of the hope all Europeans need," McShane added.