Analysis: Is defiant tape a sign of weakness?

TMCnet News

TO believers in jihad, Osama bin Laden is the prophet in the wilderness.

He emerges from a cave to cast anathemas against America, warn it to stop sinning against the Muslim peoples and prophesy victory against the forces of the evil "Crusader-Zionist alliance''.

Then the tall bearded man with the stately voice retreats again, sometimes for a very long time.

Intelligence experts say bin Laden no longer runs a global terrorist network. Instead the movement has been forced to decentralise after the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001 and the smashing of the al-Qa'eda structure in Afghanistan.

Al-Qa'eda has now "franchised'' its methods and ideology to splinter groups around the world - especially to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi who has led the jihadists' fight against America in Iraq.

Meanwhile, the al-Qa'eda "brand'' has been kept alive by videos released on the internet or to Arab satellite stations. For the past 13 months bin Laden has mysteriously vanished. The latest audio tape will quieten rumours of his death, but the feebleness of his voice may stoke speculation that he is too ill to be shown in the flesh.

The principal role of marketing al-Qa'eda has been performed by Ayman al-Zawahiri. But his video appearances may have exposed him to greater risk of detection.

The Americans appear to be getting closer, judging from events in the Pakistani village of Damalola. Details are sketchy but a US drone appears to have fired a missile into a building where Zawahiri was expected to be.

Initially the strike was regarded as a massacre of innocent villagers. But Pakistani officials said yesterday that four or five senior al-Qa'eda figures were among the dead.

Those killed are said to include a wanted explosives and chemical weapons expert, as well as a Abdul Rehman al-Maghribi, a relative of Zawahiri.

The troubles of the "core'' al-Qa'eda leadership are apparent from an intercepted letter from Zawahiri to Zarqawi, released by the US last October.

Zawahiri bemoans the fact that he cannot travel to Iraq, recounts how "the real danger comes from the Pakistani army'' and, finally, begs Zarqawi for money because "many of the lines have been cut off''. Still, Zawahiri gives Zarqawi advice, telling him that "we are in a battle, and more than half this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media''.

This may explain the timing of the latest bin Laden message: what better tonic for dispirited holy warriors than to hear the reassuring prophecy of victory from Osama bin Laden himself?