Bitterness in Beijing over North Korea's betrayal may mean war

"THE prospects for continued peace in north Asia depend on the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear status, which resume in Beijing today after 15 stormy political months on the Korean peninsula.

The dynamics have shifted dramatically since the last talks. When Pyongyang tested its first nuclear bomb two months ago, defying pleas from Beijing, it alienated itself from its only ally.

The extent of that alienation has been revealed in essays by China's leading strategic thinkers. The bitter sense of betrayal felt in China about its communist neighbour, on whose behalf 360,000 soldiers, mainly volunteers, died during the Korean war 53 years ago.

Zhang Liangui, professor of international strategic research at the influential Central Party School in Beijing, says that "having crossed the nuclear threshold, it is unlikely Pyongyang will give up its possession of such weapons". China "is the biggest loser" from this step."
-- The Australian --

"The balance of comprehensive national strength began to tip in the early 1970s, and widened dramatically with the South's economic power growing 30 times greater than the North," said Professor Zhang, adding that North Korea never stopped its nuclear program from the 1960s; but instead, kept buying time. "North Korean leaders see mastering nuclear weapons as the only possible measure to dispel the fear of failure in this competition, and even possibly to take the initiative in unifying the Korean peninsula though force," he further postulates.

He views the nuclear program as (1) domestic cover for its' dismal economy and rampant poverty because many regard having a nuclear program as a sign of national strength, and (2) He sees it as a way to gain leverage for practical (i.e., political) gains.

North Korea, the professor thinks, is greatly interested in "breaking the ice" and wants to improve its relations with the US, but to date, has been unable to do so. Having an improved relationship with the U.S. gives the Chicoms a whopping case of heartburn because that could mean the Bejing would be the ones left out in the cold, or so the thinking goes.

Because he believes North Korea will be reluctant to discuss giving up their nuclear program, he is quite doubtful that the six party talks will achieve anything. And, their next logical step will be to force the international community to accept them as a nuclear power - "or else"!

Through all this, and unless China takes firm action against Kim Jong Il and his regime, Professsor Yhang sees Japan as the biggest winner in this scenario. His rationale is that if the Chicoms stay the course with their vague and equivocal policies on NK's nuclear isssues, Japan, with the not-so-tacit approval of the United States, will become nuclearized.

This would lead to a new East Asian military alliance of Australia, South Korea, Taiwan and other southeastern Asian countries with Japan playing a powerful role as the central force of this new alliance.

This puts China in a box, or as Jhang explains: "China is cornered diplomatically." Nuclear weapons in the hands of North Korea is neither in the best interest of China, nor good for mankind; and the heretofore, vague and ambiguous attitude displayed by China "will result in China being denounced by the international community." However, if China were to express clearly, a definite disapproval of North Korea' behavior and their march towards nuclearization, well, it could cause some other serious problems.

"With a shared border of 1,400km, North Korea acts as a guard post for China, keeping at bay the tens of thousands of US troops stationed in South Korea, allowing China to focus on Taiwanese independence while providing North Korea with the means to survive."

Interestingly, Zhu Feng, director of the international security program at Beijing University, makes mention of a recent poll that showed 44 per cent of the Chinese "disliked" North Korea more than any other country. Feng says, "The Chinese leadership now understands it may have deluded itself about the Kim Jong-il Government pursuing a good-neighbourly policy that Pyongyang would gradually be won over by China's kindness."