HILLARY'S SLIPPAGE

Dick Morris writes in The Hill about the most recent Washington Post-ABC poll in Iowa (Nov 14-18) which showed 'Hillbillery' trailing Obama by 4 % (30% to 26%) and Edwards at 22%. Morris points out a couple interesting facts from the internals of the poll:

The internals of the poll contain even worse news for Hillary:

• Obama is running even with Hillary among Iowa women.

• Of the 55 percent of Iowa Democrats who prefer change (versus the 33 percent who want experience), Obama leads with 43 percent to Edwards’s 25 and Hillary’s 17 percent. Being for change in a Democratic primary is like being for stability in a GOP contest. It’s the growth
sector.

• Half of Hillary’s voters have not attended a previous caucus, versus 43
percent of Obama’s and 24 percent of Edwards’s. With the caucus system as complex as it is and the places of the meetings as distant as they are, previous attendance is a key indicator of the likelihood of their actually voting this time. If we assume no first-time caucus attendee will actually show up (an exaggeration but worth thinking about) then Hillary would finish third with Obama and Edwards tied for first.

Even if Hillary were to lose Iowa, she would remain the odds-on-favorite to win the Democrat nomination. But it does appear she may be more vulnerable now than many had anticipated.