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Heavy-Handed Politics

"€œGod willing, with the force of God behind it, we shall soon experience a world
without the United States and Zionism."€ -- Iran President Ahmadi-Nejad

Saturday, July 23, 2005

China's endgame strategy

It's about much more than Taiwan

What is China's ultimate strategic objective?

"Some shortsighted might suggest is annexing Taiwan through diplomatic and political pressure or by military action. But the Taiwan card is nothing but a smokescreen and a well-calculated tactic of testing, time and again, the U.S. resolve to defend politically and militarily three main countries – Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, all three at the forefront of technological and industrial developments."

Sources say the Chinese administration receives daily reports on U.S. geo-political and strategic conditions. They believe situations such as the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, together with socio-economic problems in the U.S. and the Americas, will in the short and long terms weaken the U.S.

The recent Pentagon report on China’s massive military build-up on her way to become a first-class superpower also indicates China is deeply involved in scientific and technological developments including plans for long-term military procurements.

China watchers say the leadership in Beijing has targeted 2020 as the year when the Chinese military is assumed to have achieved an optimal stage of development and upgrading enabling the People’s Army to act on the Taiwan issue if a political resolution has not been reached beforehand.

One of the more urgent matters on the agenda of the Chinese ministry of defense is the development of a long-range nuclear patrol submarine fleet armed with multiple missiles capable of carrying both conventional and WMD warheads.

The Chinese desire to slow down the U.S. missile defense project while establishing monitoring facilities in Asia and beyond, coincides with her global naval ambitions.

Some evaluations point to the fact most of the Chinese 2,5 million standing army including reserves, is far from being upgraded to an optimal battle readiness standard.

Carrier fleets can be eliminated while more attention is paid to procuring submarines, long-range missiles along with massive development of air bases capable of serving modern long-range super sonic bombers designed for deep penetration. Some are being developed with stealth capability.

The U.S. administration lightly brushed aside a threat made on July 14 by Chinese General Zhu Chenghu who brazenly said China would launch a nuclear attack on the continental U.S. if confronted militarily over Taiwan. A more responsible evaluation of such a dangerous expression would consider China’s capability to fulfill such a threat.

The Chinese general’s expression indicates a Cold War era balance of fear is developing between Beijing and Washington, this at a time when pacifying policies aimed at Russia have shifted to a low gear with some experts saying U.S.-Russian strategic relations have hit the tip of an iceberg. Lack of a swift American reaction to General Zhu Chenghu’s words can be perceived as U.S. hesitancy, not to say an expression of weakness, especially at a time when the U.S. economy is experiencing growing dependency on the Chinese labor market and industry.

The most important facts the Chinese have recently become more aware of are Russia’s strategic shift, her return to rapid military development including upgrading forces, and increasing Russian influence and penetration into two main areas – the world’s energy market and the unrelenting hunger of numerous countries for modern weapons. Russia will sell her military products to any interested party, no strings attached, thus reducing competition with U.S. sales which are often dependant on political conditions and restraints. The Chinese, therefore, do not have to comply with any U.S. demands and can easily purchase their military hardware from Russia.

The Chinese, who were always interested in Russian military products, now have the option to purchase equipment and hardware directly from the Russian industry. The Russians are investing billions in upgrading various systems, which ultimately China can benefit from, saving both funds and efforts. In what one could ironically term as somewhat bizarre the Chinese not only prosper through funds earned from U.S. outsourcing deals, they can also use that money to develop their own military technologies or to pay for purchasing Russian products.

At the end of the day China is becoming a major threat to the U.S. by establishing a modern military funded among others through jobs shifted from the U.S. to China.

Undoubtedly the Pentagon’s report on China’s military build up will not deter nor bring to a standstill China’s quest for the status of a first class super power, a target not very far from being achieved.

Excerpts from G2 Bulletin


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