Kabul Attack: Afghani Security Woes or Taliban Incompetence?

By Fred Burton and Scott Stewart
StratFor
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

The Taliban’s April 27 attack against a ceremony commemorating Afghanistan’s independence has gotten a lot of media attention. One reason driving the coverage is that the attack took place during an event broadcast on live television that was attended by Afghan President Hamid Karzai and an array of local and foreign dignitaries, including the U.S. and British ambassadors and the NATO commander in Afghanistan.

The strike, which left three people dead, has also resulted in severe criticism of Afghan intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh, Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak and Interior Minister Zarar Ahmad Moqbel, with some Afghan lawmakers calling for their resignations.

Clearly, the attack underscores the Karzai regime’s continuing struggle to achieve stability in Afghanistan: the attack was the third assassination attempt against him in his four-year presidency. It is also a reminder — like the massive suicide bombing that occurred in Baghlan province Nov. 6, 2007, and the Jan. 14 attack against the Serena Hotel in Kabul — that Taliban militants have expanded beyond their traditional operational strongholds in Afghanistan’s South.

In retrospect however, perhaps the most interesting facet of this attack was not how it drew attention to security problems in Afghanistan, that it happened at a high-profile event, or even that the attack was launched in Kabul. Like the suicide bombing at Bagram Air Base during U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney’s February 2007 visit, those things have all happened before.

Rather, the truly interesting factor in this case, and one that has received little focus from most observers, is that the Taliban proved incapable of capitalizing on a golden opportunity to stage a dramatic and effective operation even though they were given many weeks to prepare for the attack. Read it all here.